Forecast. Exchange. Watch. Research.

Understand the world, make free forecasts, trade practice points, watch markets and build sourced research with Stupid Pro.

Why use Stupid Pro?

Forecast real events, trade YES/NO shares with free practice points, watch source-linked market prices and build research watchlists. Public access is free. Research Pro is free for a limited time, with no payment card required.

Public research library

• How to read inflation without losing the context

  Separate the price level, the inflation rate, the comparison period and the household experience.

• A research checklist for the jobs report

  Employment, unemployment, participation and wages describe different parts of the labour market.

• From interest-rate decisions to business implications

  Trace the mechanism from a policy announcement to financing, customer demand and currencies.

• An FX reference rate is not your executable price

  Understand quote direction, cross-rates, publication time and the costs missing from a reference series.

• Crypto price, volume and liquidity: three different questions

  A last-traded price cannot show how much activity exists or what a larger order would encounter.

• Volatility and drawdown measure different kinds of movement

  Read variability, losses from prior peaks and the limits of a short historical window.

• A forecast probability is not an asset price

  Keep community belief, practice-point contract prices and observable financial markets distinct.

• Research startup adoption beyond announcements

  Distinguish business formation, sign-ups, repeated use, paying demand and durable adoption.

• Evaluate AI benchmarks against your actual use case

  A leaderboard result is one observation; deployment quality also depends on task, data and failure cost.

• Audit market-data freshness before interpreting a chart

  Observation time, retrieval time, release time and revision history are different pieces of evidence.

• Build an evidence ledger that another researcher can audit

  Connect every important claim to an original source, a definition, a date and a stated limitation.

• Scenario analysis for founder and research decisions

  Explore consequences under explicit assumptions without presenting a scenario as a forecast.

Market analytics

Twenty crypto and EUR-based FX observations. Historical returns, EMA, SMA, RSI, MACD, Bollinger bands, volatility and drawdown, with sources and timestamps.

Forecasts

• Will US headline CPI inflation for September 2026 be above 3.0% year on year?

  The BLS calendar schedules the September CPI release for 14 October. Forecast the first published all-items CPI-U 12-month change.

• Will Google make the Trends API generally available by 31 Dec 2027?

  The public documentation currently describes an alpha program. This question follows the next change in access.

• Will UPI record 25 billion transactions in a month by June 2027?

  A measurable India growth milestone with a named statistical source.

• Will React publish a stable GitHub release in the week ending 23 Oct 2026?

  Forecast the project's release activity during the specified future UTC week. Releases before this window do not count; no upcoming release is being asserted.

• Will Vue publish a stable GitHub release in the week ending 23 Oct 2026?

  Forecast the project's release activity during the specified future UTC week. Releases before this window do not count; no upcoming release is being asserted.

• Will Svelte publish a stable GitHub release in the week ending 23 Oct 2026?

  Forecast the project's release activity during the specified future UTC week. Releases before this window do not count; no upcoming release is being asserted.

• Will Vite publish a stable GitHub release in the week ending 23 Oct 2026?

  Forecast the project's release activity during the specified future UTC week. Releases before this window do not count; no upcoming release is being asserted.

• Will Deno publish a stable GitHub release in the week ending 23 Oct 2026?

  Forecast the project's release activity during the specified future UTC week. Releases before this window do not count; no upcoming release is being asserted.

• Will TypeScript publish a stable GitHub release in the week ending 23 Oct 2026?

  Forecast the project's release activity during the specified future UTC week. Releases before this window do not count; no upcoming release is being asserted.

• Will Rust publish a stable GitHub release in the week ending 23 Oct 2026?

  Forecast the project's release activity during the specified future UTC week. Releases before this window do not count; no upcoming release is being asserted.

• Will Node.js publish a stable GitHub release in the week ending 23 Oct 2026?

  Forecast the project's release activity during the specified future UTC week. Releases before this window do not count; no upcoming release is being asserted.

• Will Next.js publish a stable GitHub release in the week ending 23 Oct 2026?

  Forecast the project's release activity during the specified future UTC week. Releases before this window do not count; no upcoming release is being asserted.

• Will OpenAI announce a newly available AI model in the week ending 23 Oct 2026?

  Forecast new model availability in the specified future UTC week. This question does not imply that OpenAI has announced a launch date.

• Will Anthropic announce a newly available AI model in the week ending 23 Oct 2026?

  Forecast new model availability in the specified future UTC week. This question does not imply that Anthropic has announced a launch date.

• Will Google announce a newly available AI model in the week ending 23 Oct 2026?

  Forecast new model availability in the specified future UTC week. This question does not imply that Google has announced a launch date.

• Will Mistral announce a newly available AI model in the week ending 23 Oct 2026?

  Forecast new model availability in the specified future UTC week. This question does not imply that Mistral has announced a launch date.

• Will Cohere announce a newly available AI model in the week ending 23 Oct 2026?

  Forecast new model availability in the specified future UTC week. This question does not imply that Cohere has announced a launch date.

• Will React publish a stable GitHub release in the week ending 6 Nov 2026?

  Forecast the project's release activity during the specified future UTC week. Releases before this window do not count; no upcoming release is being asserted.

• Will Vue publish a stable GitHub release in the week ending 6 Nov 2026?

  Forecast the project's release activity during the specified future UTC week. Releases before this window do not count; no upcoming release is being asserted.

• Will Svelte publish a stable GitHub release in the week ending 6 Nov 2026?

  Forecast the project's release activity during the specified future UTC week. Releases before this window do not count; no upcoming release is being asserted.

• Will Vite publish a stable GitHub release in the week ending 6 Nov 2026?

  Forecast the project's release activity during the specified future UTC week. Releases before this window do not count; no upcoming release is being asserted.

• Will Deno publish a stable GitHub release in the week ending 6 Nov 2026?

  Forecast the project's release activity during the specified future UTC week. Releases before this window do not count; no upcoming release is being asserted.

• Will TypeScript publish a stable GitHub release in the week ending 6 Nov 2026?

  Forecast the project's release activity during the specified future UTC week. Releases before this window do not count; no upcoming release is being asserted.

• Will Rust publish a stable GitHub release in the week ending 6 Nov 2026?

  Forecast the project's release activity during the specified future UTC week. Releases before this window do not count; no upcoming release is being asserted.

• Will Node.js publish a stable GitHub release in the week ending 6 Nov 2026?

  Forecast the project's release activity during the specified future UTC week. Releases before this window do not count; no upcoming release is being asserted.

• Will Next.js publish a stable GitHub release in the week ending 6 Nov 2026?

  Forecast the project's release activity during the specified future UTC week. Releases before this window do not count; no upcoming release is being asserted.

• Will OpenAI announce a newly available AI model in the week ending 6 Nov 2026?

  Forecast new model availability in the specified future UTC week. This question does not imply that OpenAI has announced a launch date.

• Will Anthropic announce a newly available AI model in the week ending 6 Nov 2026?

  Forecast new model availability in the specified future UTC week. This question does not imply that Anthropic has announced a launch date.

• Will Google announce a newly available AI model in the week ending 6 Nov 2026?

  Forecast new model availability in the specified future UTC week. This question does not imply that Google has announced a launch date.

• Will Mistral announce a newly available AI model in the week ending 6 Nov 2026?

  Forecast new model availability in the specified future UTC week. This question does not imply that Mistral has announced a launch date.

Briefs

• Google Trends is opening an API — slowly

  The search signal is becoming easier to study, but access remains limited.

• TikTok’s direct-post path now includes photos

  A new format for creators building publishing workflows.

• The agent era is becoming an operating layer

  The interesting shift: software that can carry work across steps.